Monday, July 09, 2007

New blog site! Update your bookmarks/RSS feeds.

I have set up a new blog and I'm calling it Happy Chaos Freedom Machine. I've migrated some of the posts from here already and will be making all my new posts over there from now on. The reason for this is that I'm finding a focus emerging in my posting here that I want to hone and develop. For years I've wanted to write a book about what excites me about the way the world is changing, but I've been unable to find the right entry point and focus to get it done. Instead of a book, I'm going to blog it. Makes sense, right?

Anyway, please update any bookmarks. See you over there.

China's New State Investors - Newsweek: International Editions - MSNBC.com

The Chinese are freeing up some of the capital they've had in t-bills to use for higher risk and higher return - some $200B to start.

Two thoughts occur to me - first, couldn't you make money just chasing their money around? That huge a chunk of cash is going to make some very big ripples. Second, it seems to be part of an emerging trend of privatizing the capital markets. More on this on later.

Friday, July 06, 2007

BarCamp / iPhoneDevCamp

I have to hand it to my friends William and Raven - 3 weeks ago they decided they wanted to have the first iPhone-centric hacking session, and lo and behold: the iPhoneDevCamp.
It sounds like fun - 300 attendees with a bunch of iPhones, trying to figure out some useful/fun/elegant hacks. Wish I could be there - have fun guys!

Not a good time to be a trader


There is yet another technology-driven disruption brewing - this time in the realm of stock trading. The shift towards "algorithmic trading" is accelerating - in fact, according to this Reuters article, "About a third of U.S. equities trading is already being done using algorithmic trading, with that figure expected to soar to more than 50 percent by 2010..." Which may be an underestimation. Apparently an IBM study from 2006 estimated a tenfold reduction in the ranks of traders, as in, for every 10 traders today there will be 1 by 2015.

While it is inevitable that disruption hurts someone, it is also true that someone will benefit -- in this case I believe the benefits will come eventually in an Internet-style disintermediation of financial markets. After all, if one can execute strategies through a piece of software, it should be trivial to provide access to that software to whoever wants to use it, right?

Wednesday, July 04, 2007

Kraftwerk Kulturzentrum

I am consistently impressed by the quality of Bruce Sterling's thought. His recent Wired piece, Dispatches From the Hyperlocal Future, is no exception. It's a fictional set of blog posts from 2017 made by a hyperconnected Cory Doctorow stand-in who specializes in the applications of computing power embedded in everyday objects and ubiquitous network connectivity. He calls this "hyperlocal" - hyper as in linked and local as in wherever you happen to be right now.

Every paragraph actually touches on a distinct ground-shaking implication of the ultra-connected computational wonderland we're heading for, almost too many to keep track of, which is sort of appropriate. One theme popped out at me in particular, an enhanced ability to discover the complex set of interactions that produce a social phenomenon. In Sterling's piece it's a torrent of real estate speculation in Dubai that his main character is hired to analyze and understand. What he uncovers is the convergence of a loophole in a treaty to unify Taiwan with China that allowed wealthy Taiwanese to hide their assets in the houses they own and the legal attributes unique to Dubai.

This is the same effect the Internet had, with its distributed architecture and resources rendered networked applications effectively transparent, exposing the guts of the machine to whoever wanted to dig around in them. In the "hyperlocal" world Sterling describes, the flows of people and capital will be similarly transparent and exposed to those who wish to look. What a contrast to the mysterious ways of our world as they have been, accessible only to those "masters of the universe" with skills and wealth and connections.

Also, who can resist the idea of the "Kraftwerk Kulturzentrum," a "vast, perpetual, swirling technorave ... [an] homage to the 20th century's supremely influential band"