The iPhone cannot succeed
Yes, I prognosticate at my peril, but I think it's actually a pretty safe bet that it is impossible for Apple's forthcoming iPhone to be deemed a success -- at least, in relation to the level of hype and in the time frame of Wall Street's ADD.
New York magazine published a profile of Steve Jobs by John Heileman which serves as a terrific backgrounder to the launch. Apple's been blazing trails for personal computing since the beginning, and that pioneering spirit has often come at a considerable price. Each major product has initially met with derision, from the "GUIs are for children" Mac to the iPod. Yes, the iPod. Remember the first reactions to the scroll wheel? The general lack of interest in yet-another MP3 player from The Street? It took 18-24 months and some solid sales figures to turn it into the blue chip stock AAPL has now become.
The other price Apple pays for innovation is fallout from not-quite-perfect first versions of its most appealing technologies. With the Mac it was a lack of a hard drive, with the iPod, poor battery life. Even with evolutionary releases of products like laptops Apple seldom gets the 1st generation right. This is hardly a unique failing in high-tech, as these incredibly complex artifacts are cranked out with shorter and shorter product cycles that don't allow for rigorous engineering testing.
Which brings us to the iPhone. The level of anticipation for this Apple product surpasses that of any previous products, and even if every detail is perfect it's hard to believe that people won't be disappointed. The first mention of a cracked screen, corrupted memory, or simply the frustration of not having a keyboard is going to deflate the hype at least somewhat.
Beyond the initial introduction period, it seems very unlikely to me that the iPhone will ever achieve the iPod-level of complete market domination in the smart phone market. The iPod's appeal is simple - it is a very well-designed tool that does one thing extremely well (no one buys an iPod because it can display photos or play videos).
The iPhone suffers from the lack of focus that plagues all smart phones - communication device, information appliance, media player, camera, web browser, email client, instant message client, which one is it? Like a personal computer, by trying to be everything to everyone, the iPhone can't be the best of anything for anyone.
4 comments:
I agree that the iPhone will not capture the majority of the smartphone market. However I do feel that Apple can capture a significant portion of that market. The iPod suffered numerous problems when first released, as you point out, but still garners 90%+ of the portable music player market. Nearly everyone of those owning an iPod also owns a mobile phone.
A successful 'all-in-one' device has been the nirvana that many seek and many have striven to produce, with varying degrees of success. Still, no one 'owns' the market. I firmly believe that whilst iPhone v1.0 will suffer problems and limitations, it will succeed and succeed very well. I can't wait to get my hands on v2.0...which is what we'll get over here in Asia-Pacific anyway....we wait with baited breath..
As regards the "all-in-one" device - my belief is that it is impossible for any device to capture a majority of the market's own idea of what "all-in-one" means. For some, the iPhone connectivity will be too slow. For others, WiFi will suffice but the lack of keyboard will be annoying. It's the same with all smartphones - they can't please enough people enough of the time to dominate the way the iPod has.
iPhone will be great for those with the "next ipod" jones, and "oh by the way it also has a phone so I don't have to carry 2 devices". It will be difficult to gain broad mass appeal without a keyboard - witness Microsoft and Palm's hard earned lessons in the space. I think broader appeal would happen with an iPhone Nano as did with the ipod nano - cheaper, smaller, easier to carry. iPhone shuffle would be a nifty concept - randomly call someone or play tunes for $99.
Hm interesting Hiram - so what do you see as the reduced feature set of the "iPhone Nano?"
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